In all likelihood, the Perak State Assembly dissolution is imminent, and a fresh state-wide election will be on the card. Read the previous Predictive Scenario h e r e.
The Perak state election will be the first major test for Najib. Indeed, it will be regarded as a referendum on Najib’s 1Malaysia Administration.
A win by Barisan Nasional will be a major booster to Najib, and will make his planned reforms easier.
But, based on the current sentiment of the voters in Perak, it is likely that Pakatan Rakyat, led largely by Perak’s DAP, will form the next state government.
I have twice written before h e r e and h e r e that Nizar will never be a Menteri Besar again: not in Perak, or elsewhere. He has broken his sacred oath with Sultan Azlan by revealing some of the intimate discussion between the two; and due to the breach of oath Nizar can no longer be trusted by any other Sultan.
At the 12th General Election held on 12 March 2008, BN won most of the Perak state assembly seats with a total of 28. However, that was not enough to form the state government as DAP (18), PKR (7) and PAS (6) were able to secure Sultan Azlan’s consent to form a loose coalition government with their total of 31 state assembly seats. Although DAP, with their higher number of seats won, wanted to have their representative to be the Menteri Besar, they eventually relented to Sultan Azlan’s request for the MB post to be held by a Malay state assemblyman. Although PAS won the least number of state seats compared to the other coalition members, as a compromise, Nizar of PAS was selected as the puppet MB on behalf of DAP.
That compromise will never have to occur anymore. Any potential candidates from PAS and PKR will have to dream on becoming the next Menteri Besar of Perak.
DAP will again win big in the next Perak state election.
DAP will most likely field a Malay candidate in one of their safe seats in Perak State Assembly. That Malay candidate will be the next Menteri Besar of Perak, representing DAP.
That Malay candidate will most likely be Tunku Aziz, the National Vice Chairman of DAP. That’s my Predictive Scenario.
Nizar has done a lot of work to enable DAP to retain its stronghold in Perak State Government. But Nizar will not be the Menteri Besar of Perak after the next state election. Nizar is just a pawn in the political game.