I initially drafted this particular Predictive Scenario and wanted to post it last night (Sunday) as “2Perak: Najib’s 1Malaysia likely to lose at least twice”.
I do believe that a Pakatan Rakyat will eventually succeed in forcing the dissolution of Perak State Assembly, to pave the way for a state-wide election in the silver state.
If that happens, Najib will stand to lose at least twice. Firstly, he will lost BN’s bid to keep the present BN-led Perak State Government intact. Secondly, BN will lose the Perak state election. I guess things will continue to turn downhill for Najib’s 1Malaysia unless he ingeniously turnaround UMNO-BN’s fortune soonest.
PM Najib’s first by-election test will be the Penang State seat in Penanti. The forthcoming Penanti by-election in Penang will be a walk in the park for PKR. Penanti is situated in the Parliamentary constituency of Permatang Pauh, the homebase for Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim, the Opposition Leader. The seat is for PKR to lose. Dr Mansor will easily be the next Penanti’s assemblyman, and he will be appointed the Deputy Chief Minister I of Penang.
On the other hand, although the mainstream media seems to portray that the Perak crisis will be coming to an end soon, I have a feeling that the crisis would not be over until Pakatan Rakyat manage to secure the dissolution of the State Assembly and force a state-wide election in Perak.
(Note: Paragraphs 2 to 4 above was drafted on Saturday, 9 May 2009. The continuing paragraphs are based on current events on Monday, 11 May 2009)
Now that the court has ruled in favour of Nizar as the rightful Menteri Besar of Perak, Nizar will most likely achieve his aim to obtain the ruler’s consent to dissolve the state assembly. Since Raja Nazrin is now the Regent of Perak, I guess Nizar’s audience with the Regent tomorrow will be his last as Perak’s Menteri Besar.
(Although I respect the decision of the court, I am of the view that Sultan Azlan has rightly used his discretion to ask Nizar to resign, and the Sultan was also right in appointing Zambry as the Menteri Besar. Nevertheless, I expected that the Perak State Assembly will eventually be dissolved due to the impasse in the State Assembly itself. In my opinion, Sivakumar has played the right gambit in barring Zambry, Zambry’s EXCO and the three defectors from the State Assembly sitting).
Let’s see how the Regent will react to Nizar’s request to dissolve the state assembly tomorrow. If the Regent (at the direction by the Sultan) rejects Nizar’s request, there will be another impasse at the state assembly, which will prolong the ultimate outcome: the dissolution.
Thus, it will be likely that the Regent will accede to Nizar’s request to dissolve the state assembly, and pave way for a new state-wide election in Perak. Najib’s olive branch statement made yesterday has actually cornered Najib into accepting the court’s decision to recognise Nizar as the rightful Menteri Besar. Prolonging the crisis further would not be good to Najib’s vision of 1Malaysia.
To summarise, state-wide election in Perak is inevitable, and it will be the first major referendum on Najib’s 1Malaysia Administration. A positive outcome would be a boost to Najib, and enable him to smoothly proceed with his planned reforms. But the likelihood is that Pakatan would be triumphant in forming a new state government in Perak, albeit without Nizar as the Menteri Besar.