Prescene 19 - Dan Sebenarnya by Yuna looks good for Song of the Year Award

When I first heard the song Dan Sebenarnya by Yuna on radio, I instantly thought that it’s a very good song worthy for Juara Lagu.

I am glad that the song is now on the charts of Muzik Muzik.

The song is unique, very Malaysian and sincere.

Yuna has got the talent, and I hope she will excel in her music career. I am sure that she is a very intelligent gal, who also excel in her studies.

Dan Sebenarnya sounds like a potential Juara Lagu for this year. Dan Sebenarnya also looks good for Anugerah Industri Muzik’s Song of the Year; with Yuna herself, as (at least) Best New Artiste of the Year.

For the uninitiated, the song is about a girl who could not get over losing her boyfriend. For a spoof on a politician who cannot get over losing his Menteri Besar post, see h e r e.

The actual lyrics are as follows:

Dan Sebenarnya by Yuna

Oh Bulan..
Enggan melayan diriku lagi
Pabila airmata membasahi pipi
Dan lagu lagu di radio seolah olah memerli aku
Pabila kau bersama yang lain

Adakah perasaan benci ini sebenarnya cinta
Yang masih bersemadi untukmu
Dan sebenarnya ku mengharapkan di sebalik senyumanmu itu
Kau juga menyintai aku

Ku enggan berpura pura ku bahagia
Ku enggan melihat kau bersama si dia
Oh ku akui cemburu
Mula menular dalam diri
Pabila kau bersama yang lain

Adakah perasaaan benci ini sebenarnya cinta
Yang masih bersemadi untukmu
Dan sebenarya ku mengharapkan
Di sebalik senyuman mu itu
Kau juga merindui aku

Pabila kau merenung matanya
Ku rebah jatuh ke bumi
Di saat kau benar-benar mahu pergi
Seperti ku bernafas dalam air

Adakah perasaaan benci ini sebenarnya cinta
Yang masih.. bersemadi untukmu
Dan sebenarnya ku mengharapkan
Di sebalik senyuman mu itu
Kau juga merindui aku

Oh…
Dan Sebenarnya ..
Dan Sebenarnya ..

Aku rindu ..

Dan Sebenarnya ..
Dan Sebenarnya ..

Aku tak mampu .. tanpamu..

Prescene 18 - Tunku Aziz as the next Perak Menteri Besar

In all likelihood, the Perak State Assembly dissolution is imminent, and a fresh state-wide election will be on the card. Read the previous Predictive Scenario h e r e.

The Perak state election will be the first major test for Najib. Indeed, it will be regarded as a referendum on Najib’s 1Malaysia Administration.

A win by Barisan Nasional will be a major booster to Najib, and will make his planned reforms easier.

But, based on the current sentiment of the voters in Perak, it is likely that Pakatan Rakyat, led largely by Perak’s DAP, will form the next state government.

I have twice written before h e r e and h e r e that Nizar will never be a Menteri Besar again: not in Perak, or elsewhere. He has broken his sacred oath with Sultan Azlan by revealing some of the intimate discussion between the two; and due to the breach of oath Nizar can no longer be trusted by any other Sultan.

At the 12th General Election held on 12 March 2008, BN won most of the Perak state assembly seats with a total of 28. However, that was not enough to form the state government as DAP (18), PKR (7) and PAS (6) were able to secure Sultan Azlan’s consent to form a loose coalition government with their total of 31 state assembly seats. Although DAP, with their higher number of seats won, wanted to have their representative to be the Menteri Besar, they eventually relented to Sultan Azlan’s request for the MB post to be held by a Malay state assemblyman. Although PAS won the least number of state seats compared to the other coalition members, as a compromise, Nizar of PAS was selected as the puppet MB on behalf of DAP.

That compromise will never have to occur anymore. Any potential candidates from PAS and PKR will have to dream on becoming the next Menteri Besar of Perak.

DAP will again win big in the next Perak state election.

DAP will most likely field a Malay candidate in one of their safe seats in Perak State Assembly. That Malay candidate will be the next Menteri Besar of Perak, representing DAP.

That Malay candidate will most likely be Tunku Aziz, the National Vice Chairman of DAP. That’s my Predictive Scenario.

Nizar has done a lot of work to enable DAP to retain its stronghold in Perak State Government. But Nizar will not be the Menteri Besar of Perak after the next state election. Nizar is just a pawn in the political game.

Prescene 17 - From 2Perak to 1Perak: Najib’s 1Malaysia losing the plot

I initially drafted this particular Predictive Scenario and wanted to post it last night (Sunday) as “2Perak: Najib’s 1Malaysia likely to lose at least twice”.

I do believe that a Pakatan Rakyat will eventually succeed in forcing the dissolution of Perak State Assembly, to pave the way for a state-wide election in the silver state.

If that happens, Najib will stand to lose at least twice. Firstly, he will lost BN’s bid to keep the present BN-led Perak State Government intact. Secondly, BN will lose the Perak state election. I guess things will continue to turn downhill for Najib’s 1Malaysia unless he ingeniously turnaround UMNO-BN’s fortune soonest.

PM Najib’s first by-election test will be the Penang State seat in Penanti. The forthcoming Penanti by-election in Penang will be a walk in the park for PKR. Penanti is situated in the Parliamentary constituency of Permatang Pauh, the homebase for Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim, the Opposition Leader. The seat is for PKR to lose. Dr Mansor will easily be the next Penanti’s assemblyman, and he will be appointed the Deputy Chief Minister I of Penang.

On the other hand, although the mainstream media seems to portray that the Perak crisis will be coming to an end soon, I have a feeling that the crisis would not be over until Pakatan Rakyat manage to secure the dissolution of the State Assembly and force a state-wide election in Perak.

(Note: Paragraphs 2 to 4 above was drafted on Saturday, 9 May 2009. The continuing paragraphs are based on current events on Monday, 11 May 2009)

Now that the court has ruled in favour of Nizar as the rightful Menteri Besar of Perak, Nizar will most likely achieve his aim to obtain the ruler’s consent to dissolve the state assembly. Since Raja Nazrin is now the Regent of Perak, I guess Nizar’s audience with the Regent tomorrow will be his last as Perak’s Menteri Besar.

(Although I respect the decision of the court, I am of the view that Sultan Azlan has rightly used his discretion to ask Nizar to resign, and the Sultan was also right in appointing Zambry as the Menteri Besar. Nevertheless, I expected that the Perak State Assembly will eventually be dissolved due to the impasse in the State Assembly itself. In my opinion, Sivakumar has played the right gambit in barring Zambry, Zambry’s EXCO and the three defectors from the State Assembly sitting).

Let’s see how the Regent will react to Nizar’s request to dissolve the state assembly tomorrow. If the Regent (at the direction by the Sultan) rejects Nizar’s request, there will be another impasse at the state assembly, which will prolong the ultimate outcome: the dissolution.

Thus, it will be likely that the Regent will accede to Nizar’s request to dissolve the state assembly, and pave way for a new state-wide election in Perak. Najib’s olive branch statement made yesterday has actually cornered Najib into accepting the court’s decision to recognise Nizar as the rightful Menteri Besar. Prolonging the crisis further would not be good to Najib’s vision of 1Malaysia.

To summarise, state-wide election in Perak is inevitable, and it will be the first major referendum on Najib’s 1Malaysia Administration. A positive outcome would be a boost to Najib, and enable him to smoothly proceed with his planned reforms. But the likelihood is that Pakatan would be triumphant in forming a new state government in Perak, albeit without Nizar as the Menteri Besar.

Prescene 16 - Anwar’s photo op with P.Uthayakumar is imminent

I have to rush to do this posting before the actual event happens.

Yesterday, 9 May 2009, the Malaysian government released the Hindraf’s three from ISA detention. That includes P.Uthayakumar, who said that he will not thank the government for releasing him. Never mind that, the Hindrafs are all a bunch of thankless people anyway. They may not even thank DAP nor PKR for their release.

BarkingMagpie’s posting h e r e is quite relevant.

Let’s see the similarity of Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim and Uthayakumar photos again.

Both of them strike similar campaign to discredit the government’s treatment during their detention. Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim was supposedly at the brink of being paralyse waist-down. (Note: Anwar has fully recovered – I saw him dancing on stage during Khalid Ibrahim’s Ijok campaign). Uthayakumar was supposedly actually dying from ill-health.

Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim must be desperate to meet P.Uthayakumar soon after the latter’s release from Kamunting. Foreign journalists will be summoned to cover the story. There must be a press statement from Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim, taking credit for the ISA detainees’ release. There will be a photo of them together.

After all, the Hindrafs do adore Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim. They have a lot of say in PKR’s logo motives too.

Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim would have loved to invite Uthayakumar to join PKR. If Uthayakumar form a new party, it will be a vote of no confidence on PKR. Otherwise, some of Hindraf's members in PKR will join Uthayakumar to form the new party.

(Question: Will elected assemblymen or MPs who is also a PKR member be deemed to have automatically resigned from their post in the event that he joined Uthayakumar in the Hindraf Party?)