Prescene 20 - World Cup Predictions

Based on the grouping, I believe that England would be in a good position to at least reach the World Cup semi-final. On the other hand, Brazil would have to battle their way through the various stages of the finals.

I predict a mouth-watering final between Brazil and Spain, with Brazil becoming the eventual World Cup Champion again.

Here’s my prediction, and how I am going to track by success rate:-

SECOND ROUND MATCHES
(1 point for each correct last-16 team, 1 point for correct group winner – 24 points in total)

Uruguay (Winner A) vs Nigeria (Second B) Actual: Uruguay vs South Korea 2pts
England (Winner C) vs Australia (Second D) Actual: United States vs Ghana 1pt
Holland (Winner E) vs Paraguay (Second F) Actual: Holland vs Slovakia 2pts
Brazil (Winner G) vs Chile (Second H) Actual: Brazil vs Chile 3pts
Argentina (Winner B) vs South Africa (Second A) Actual: Argentina vs Mexico 2pts
Germany (Winner D) vs United States (Second C) Actual: Germany vs England 3pts
Italy (Winner F) vs Cameroon (Second E) Actual: Paraguay vs Japan 0pt
Spain (Winner H) vs Portugal (Second G) Actual: Spain vs Portugal 3pts
(Actual: 16 of 24 pts)

QUARTER-FINALS
(3 points for each correct team – 24 points in total)

Uruguay vs England Actual: Uruguay vs Ghana 3pts
Holland vs Brazil Actual: Holland vs Brazil 6pts
Germany vs Argentina Actual: Germany vs Argentina 6pts
Italy vs Spain Actual: Paraguay vs Spain 3pts
(Actual: 18 of 24 pts)

SEMI-FINALS
(6 points for each correct team – 24 points in total)

England vs Brazil Actual: Uruguay vs Holland 0pt
Argentina vs Spain Actual: Germany vs Spain 6pts
(Actual 6 of 24 pts)

FINAL
(10 points for each correct team – 20 points in total)
Brazil vs Spain Actual: Holland vs Spain 10pts
(Actual: 10 of 20 pts)

WORLD CUP CHAMPION
(8 points for correct team)

Brazil Actual: Spain 0pt

ACTUAL TOTAL SCORE: 50 of 100 pts

Golden Boot (Top scorer): Fernando Torres (Spain) Actual: Thomas Mueller (Germany) 5 goals with 3 assists
Player of the tournament: Lionel Messi (Argentina) Actual: Diego Forlan (Uruguay)

Prescene 19 - Dan Sebenarnya by Yuna looks good for Song of the Year Award

When I first heard the song Dan Sebenarnya by Yuna on radio, I instantly thought that it’s a very good song worthy for Juara Lagu.

I am glad that the song is now on the charts of Muzik Muzik.

The song is unique, very Malaysian and sincere.

Yuna has got the talent, and I hope she will excel in her music career. I am sure that she is a very intelligent gal, who also excel in her studies.

Dan Sebenarnya sounds like a potential Juara Lagu for this year. Dan Sebenarnya also looks good for Anugerah Industri Muzik’s Song of the Year; with Yuna herself, as (at least) Best New Artiste of the Year.

For the uninitiated, the song is about a girl who could not get over losing her boyfriend. For a spoof on a politician who cannot get over losing his Menteri Besar post, see h e r e.

The actual lyrics are as follows:

Dan Sebenarnya by Yuna

Oh Bulan..
Enggan melayan diriku lagi
Pabila airmata membasahi pipi
Dan lagu lagu di radio seolah olah memerli aku
Pabila kau bersama yang lain

Adakah perasaan benci ini sebenarnya cinta
Yang masih bersemadi untukmu
Dan sebenarnya ku mengharapkan di sebalik senyumanmu itu
Kau juga menyintai aku

Ku enggan berpura pura ku bahagia
Ku enggan melihat kau bersama si dia
Oh ku akui cemburu
Mula menular dalam diri
Pabila kau bersama yang lain

Adakah perasaaan benci ini sebenarnya cinta
Yang masih bersemadi untukmu
Dan sebenarya ku mengharapkan
Di sebalik senyuman mu itu
Kau juga merindui aku

Pabila kau merenung matanya
Ku rebah jatuh ke bumi
Di saat kau benar-benar mahu pergi
Seperti ku bernafas dalam air

Adakah perasaaan benci ini sebenarnya cinta
Yang masih.. bersemadi untukmu
Dan sebenarnya ku mengharapkan
Di sebalik senyuman mu itu
Kau juga merindui aku

Oh…
Dan Sebenarnya ..
Dan Sebenarnya ..

Aku rindu ..

Dan Sebenarnya ..
Dan Sebenarnya ..

Aku tak mampu .. tanpamu..

Prescene 18 - Tunku Aziz as the next Perak Menteri Besar

In all likelihood, the Perak State Assembly dissolution is imminent, and a fresh state-wide election will be on the card. Read the previous Predictive Scenario h e r e.

The Perak state election will be the first major test for Najib. Indeed, it will be regarded as a referendum on Najib’s 1Malaysia Administration.

A win by Barisan Nasional will be a major booster to Najib, and will make his planned reforms easier.

But, based on the current sentiment of the voters in Perak, it is likely that Pakatan Rakyat, led largely by Perak’s DAP, will form the next state government.

I have twice written before h e r e and h e r e that Nizar will never be a Menteri Besar again: not in Perak, or elsewhere. He has broken his sacred oath with Sultan Azlan by revealing some of the intimate discussion between the two; and due to the breach of oath Nizar can no longer be trusted by any other Sultan.

At the 12th General Election held on 12 March 2008, BN won most of the Perak state assembly seats with a total of 28. However, that was not enough to form the state government as DAP (18), PKR (7) and PAS (6) were able to secure Sultan Azlan’s consent to form a loose coalition government with their total of 31 state assembly seats. Although DAP, with their higher number of seats won, wanted to have their representative to be the Menteri Besar, they eventually relented to Sultan Azlan’s request for the MB post to be held by a Malay state assemblyman. Although PAS won the least number of state seats compared to the other coalition members, as a compromise, Nizar of PAS was selected as the puppet MB on behalf of DAP.

That compromise will never have to occur anymore. Any potential candidates from PAS and PKR will have to dream on becoming the next Menteri Besar of Perak.

DAP will again win big in the next Perak state election.

DAP will most likely field a Malay candidate in one of their safe seats in Perak State Assembly. That Malay candidate will be the next Menteri Besar of Perak, representing DAP.

That Malay candidate will most likely be Tunku Aziz, the National Vice Chairman of DAP. That’s my Predictive Scenario.

Nizar has done a lot of work to enable DAP to retain its stronghold in Perak State Government. But Nizar will not be the Menteri Besar of Perak after the next state election. Nizar is just a pawn in the political game.

Prescene 17 - From 2Perak to 1Perak: Najib’s 1Malaysia losing the plot

I initially drafted this particular Predictive Scenario and wanted to post it last night (Sunday) as “2Perak: Najib’s 1Malaysia likely to lose at least twice”.

I do believe that a Pakatan Rakyat will eventually succeed in forcing the dissolution of Perak State Assembly, to pave the way for a state-wide election in the silver state.

If that happens, Najib will stand to lose at least twice. Firstly, he will lost BN’s bid to keep the present BN-led Perak State Government intact. Secondly, BN will lose the Perak state election. I guess things will continue to turn downhill for Najib’s 1Malaysia unless he ingeniously turnaround UMNO-BN’s fortune soonest.

PM Najib’s first by-election test will be the Penang State seat in Penanti. The forthcoming Penanti by-election in Penang will be a walk in the park for PKR. Penanti is situated in the Parliamentary constituency of Permatang Pauh, the homebase for Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim, the Opposition Leader. The seat is for PKR to lose. Dr Mansor will easily be the next Penanti’s assemblyman, and he will be appointed the Deputy Chief Minister I of Penang.

On the other hand, although the mainstream media seems to portray that the Perak crisis will be coming to an end soon, I have a feeling that the crisis would not be over until Pakatan Rakyat manage to secure the dissolution of the State Assembly and force a state-wide election in Perak.

(Note: Paragraphs 2 to 4 above was drafted on Saturday, 9 May 2009. The continuing paragraphs are based on current events on Monday, 11 May 2009)

Now that the court has ruled in favour of Nizar as the rightful Menteri Besar of Perak, Nizar will most likely achieve his aim to obtain the ruler’s consent to dissolve the state assembly. Since Raja Nazrin is now the Regent of Perak, I guess Nizar’s audience with the Regent tomorrow will be his last as Perak’s Menteri Besar.

(Although I respect the decision of the court, I am of the view that Sultan Azlan has rightly used his discretion to ask Nizar to resign, and the Sultan was also right in appointing Zambry as the Menteri Besar. Nevertheless, I expected that the Perak State Assembly will eventually be dissolved due to the impasse in the State Assembly itself. In my opinion, Sivakumar has played the right gambit in barring Zambry, Zambry’s EXCO and the three defectors from the State Assembly sitting).

Let’s see how the Regent will react to Nizar’s request to dissolve the state assembly tomorrow. If the Regent (at the direction by the Sultan) rejects Nizar’s request, there will be another impasse at the state assembly, which will prolong the ultimate outcome: the dissolution.

Thus, it will be likely that the Regent will accede to Nizar’s request to dissolve the state assembly, and pave way for a new state-wide election in Perak. Najib’s olive branch statement made yesterday has actually cornered Najib into accepting the court’s decision to recognise Nizar as the rightful Menteri Besar. Prolonging the crisis further would not be good to Najib’s vision of 1Malaysia.

To summarise, state-wide election in Perak is inevitable, and it will be the first major referendum on Najib’s 1Malaysia Administration. A positive outcome would be a boost to Najib, and enable him to smoothly proceed with his planned reforms. But the likelihood is that Pakatan would be triumphant in forming a new state government in Perak, albeit without Nizar as the Menteri Besar.

Prescene 16 - Anwar’s photo op with P.Uthayakumar is imminent

I have to rush to do this posting before the actual event happens.

Yesterday, 9 May 2009, the Malaysian government released the Hindraf’s three from ISA detention. That includes P.Uthayakumar, who said that he will not thank the government for releasing him. Never mind that, the Hindrafs are all a bunch of thankless people anyway. They may not even thank DAP nor PKR for their release.

BarkingMagpie’s posting h e r e is quite relevant.

Let’s see the similarity of Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim and Uthayakumar photos again.

Both of them strike similar campaign to discredit the government’s treatment during their detention. Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim was supposedly at the brink of being paralyse waist-down. (Note: Anwar has fully recovered – I saw him dancing on stage during Khalid Ibrahim’s Ijok campaign). Uthayakumar was supposedly actually dying from ill-health.

Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim must be desperate to meet P.Uthayakumar soon after the latter’s release from Kamunting. Foreign journalists will be summoned to cover the story. There must be a press statement from Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim, taking credit for the ISA detainees’ release. There will be a photo of them together.

After all, the Hindrafs do adore Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim. They have a lot of say in PKR’s logo motives too.

Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim would have loved to invite Uthayakumar to join PKR. If Uthayakumar form a new party, it will be a vote of no confidence on PKR. Otherwise, some of Hindraf's members in PKR will join Uthayakumar to form the new party.

(Question: Will elected assemblymen or MPs who is also a PKR member be deemed to have automatically resigned from their post in the event that he joined Uthayakumar in the Hindraf Party?)

Prescene 15 - Release of affidavit reaffirmed Nizar’s ineligibility as Menteri Besar, ever

On 3/3/09, I wrote in this blog that Nizar will never again be the MB of Perak.

I based my opinion then on the arrogant manner in which Nizar has conducted himself during his tenure as the MB of Perak, and later, upon being dismissed by the Sultan.

Nizar was a puppet MB for DAP, although he has several times denied that. Nizar followed DAP’s Ngeh and Nga directions in making decisions during his tenure as Perak MB. The land conversion into very long term lease (999 years) to Chinese settlers, by-passing the National Land Committee, irked even the Sultan of Perak.

Upon being dismissed as the MB by Sultan Perak, Nizar proudly continued to be used by DAP to be the front person to go against the decision of the Sultan. Even Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim preferred not to be really in the limelight in confronting the decision by the Sultan.

To the non-Malays, Nizar has become the icon in the fight against the rule of the monarchs. Nizar played along with the iconic tag.

Nizar won the Bukit Gantang Parliamentary seat due to the overwhelming support from the non-Malay voters in the constituency. The non-Malay support was crucial to Nizar as the majority of Malay voters disagreed with Nizar’s arrogant ways in dealing with the Sultan.

Now, in an affidavit which was filed in the High Court on 20/4/09 as part of the judicial review application challenging Datuk Seri Zambry Kadir appointment as the Mentri Besar of Perak, Nizar disclosed some parts of the intimate discussions between Sultan Azlan and him on 4/2/09 and 5/2/09.

Based on the article in The Malaysian Insider, these were some of the happenings during the discussions:-

Nizar recalled that on Feb 4 he informed the Sultan that three Pakatan Rakyat lawmakers had resigned.
They could not be contacted and seemed to have gone missing.
He then asked the Sultan to dissolve the assembly because it was appropriate to have fresh elections given the deadlock situation in the House with Pakatan Rakyat and BN having equal number of seats.
The Sultan said he would study the matter further and told Nizar that Allah is with those who are patient.
At no point during the audience, did the issue of Nizar losing the confidence of majority of the assembly crop up.
On Feb 5, the Sultan informed Nizar that he was rejecting the request to dissolve the assembly.
Hearing this, Nizar interjected and spoke for 15 minutes, urging the Ruler to allow the people of Perak to exercise their rights and elect their own government.
”When the assembly is dissolved, the rakyat will view the Sultan as someone who is fair and not partisan. They will in turn respect the institution for returning to them their rights to elect the government.
This is also consistent with the constitutional monarchy system and democratic principle here.
”In contrast, if the people were denied their rights, the people may lose respect for the institution and the Sultan…I pointed out that history showed that in countries such as Egypt and Iran the institution of the monarchy was diminished or completely wiped out when decisions not in the interest of people were made.''
To support his case, Nizar also read out a passage from the book "Constitutional Monrachy: Rule of Law and Good Governance .
It said: "Under normal circumstances, it is taken for granted that the Yang di-Pertuan Agong would not withhold his consent to a request for dissolution of Parliament. His role is purely formal.
The book was given to Nizar by Sultan Azlan Shah when he was installed as the MB last year.
As soon as Nizar finished his 15 minute plea, the Sultan looked up at him and declared that he would not dissolve the assembly and urged Nizar to resign.

What Nizar said in the affidavit were indeed half-truths. It is indeed an act of being arrogant and durhaka in front of the Sultan.

The truth was that after Sultan Azlan met with Nizar on 4/3/09, the Sultan met with Najib and Zahid. The Sultan were then told of the defections of the three assemblypersons to become independents but had pledged allegiance to Barisan Nasional. The Sultan also met with the three to reconfirm that BN had indeed obtained majority control of the Perak State Assembly. Sultan Azlan then decided to use his prerogative, under the Perak State Constitution, to ask Nizar to step down as MB. The Sultan wanted Zambry, who, based on the Sultan’s informed decision, would have majority support to become the MB. It was also the Sultan’s prerogative not to accede with Nizar’s request to dissolve the State Assembly.

Nizar’s affidavit indicated that he had crossed the line of secrecy oath between the then MB and the Sultan. Nizar must have been blinded by the iconic tag and followed the ill advise given by the DAP lawyers. They may have thought that the affidavit may force Sultan Azlan to issue an affidavit-in-reply or to testify in court.

I would thus reaffirm my belief that Nizar will never again be the Menteri Besar of Perak, even if Pakatan Rakyat managed to gain majority control in the Perak State Assembly. Sultan Azlan will never give consent to Nizar’s reappointment as Perak MB.

I would also predict that Nizar would never be the MB for any other state in the Malay Sultanate, ever. No Sultan will believe that Nizar will be a loyal servant to his state.

Nizar has shot himself on the foot by releasing the affidavit.

Prescene 14 - R.A.H.M.A.N. prophecy completed – What’s next?

With the formal appointment of Najib Razak as Malaysia’s Sixth Prime Minister, the RAHMAN prophecy has been fulfilled. The prophecy relates to the names of Malaysian Prime Minister, as follows:-

R – Rahman for Tunku Abdul Rahman, the First PM
A – Abdul Razak for Tun Abdul Razak, the Second PM
H – Hussien for Tun Hussein Onn, the Third PM
M – Mahathir for Tun Mahathir Mohamad, the Fourth PM
A – Abdullah for Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, the Fifth PM
N – Najib for Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib Razak, the Sixth PM

To be fair, the RAHMAN prophecy only started in 1970s, perhaps when Tun Abdul Razak was elected PM, with Hussein Onn elected as his Deputy. The prophecy became more credible when Hussein Onn chose Mahathir as his Deputy.

Mahathir nearly defied the prophecy by chosing Musa Hitam as his Deputy. However, after the M-M team fall-out, Mahathir (or perhaps UMNO) interestingly maintained the prophecy lineage by electing Abdul Ghafar Baba, the Anwar Ibrahim and lastly Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as his successive Deputies.

Mahathir was also arguably instrumental in ensuring that Abdullah Badawi followed the prophecy by claiming that Najib Razak was the best choice to be the DPM, when in fact, Pak Lah has not (then) formally decided on his Deputy!

Now, with the fulfilment of the RAHMAN prophecy, there have been various alternative proposals to be the successor to the initial prophecy, as follows:-

The pro-Khairy prophecy:-
RAZAK (named after the Second PM) – note the K for Khairy at the end

The pro-Mukhriz prophecy
RAHMAN (back to the original lineage) – note H for Hishamuddin and M for Mukhriz
Or RAHIM (in Islam, RAHMAN, followed by RAHIM) – note the M for Mukhriz at the end

The pro-Mahathir with Muhyiddin-Hishamuddin follow-on prophecy
MAHATHIR – note the M for Muhyiddin and the H for Hishamuddin

Of course, those in opposition would say that the end of the RAHMAN prophecy would also mark the end of BN’s rule. Thus they propose the pro-Anwar prophecy
ANWAR – Anwar, Nizar, etc

Perhaps we should also consider that the prophecy was based on the name of the Agong (note that Tuanku Abdul Rahman was our First Agong). Thus we would have:-
MIZAN (our current Agong) – note M for Muhyiddin as a start

The new prophecy may not even be based on the name of prominent person. Assuming Muhyiddin succeeds Najib, M.A.L.A.Y.S.I.A. would also be probable.

I suppose the RAHMAN prophecy was another self-fulfilling co-incidence. But it would not stop another round of self-fulfilling co-incidence to emerge.

The probable successor to the RAHMAN prophecy would only legitimately surfaces when we have our Eighth Prime Minister.