Prescene 13 – The return of UMNO Member No. 0000001

Tun Dr Mahathir is scheduled to attend the opening ceremony of UMNO Assembly today morning. He has been invited to attend the occasion as an observer, as TDM is not a member of UMNO. He quit the party on 19 May 2008, citing his lack of confidence in the leadership of Pak Lah.

Despite being out of UMNO for almost a year, TDM always made reference to UMNO in most of his blog postings and in his speeches. His heart and soul is still with UMNO.

During the reign of Pak Lah, there have been attempts to shut TDM out of the limelight. Some of the projects initiated by the former PM were abandoned (with some re-instated later, at a higher cost). Many UMNO-linked functions in which TDM was invited were cancelled at the eleventh hour. UMNO members were being advised to stay away from TDM’s functions etc etc. Even the slogan “Malaysia Boleh”, popularised by TDM, was not to be said at functions when Pak Lah is in attendance.

But TDM rank supreme in the hearts of many UMNO members. They yearn for TDM to come back into UMNO.

I expect Tun Dr Mahathir to indicate his intention to return to UMNO at the opening ceremony today. On the other hand, he may want to defer his intention, until he has seen the full line-up of UMNO Supreme Council. TDM must be very disappointed to note that Khairy won the UMNO Youth Chief seat, despite being found guilty for breach of election guidelines by UMNO Disciplinary Committee. Any further “surprises” would turn TDM off.

I do not know whether TDM is allowed to use back his membership number 0000001 in UMNO, when he re-joins the party. It is certainly up to the Najib and his new Supreme Council members.

Prescene 12 - Razali Ibrahim will be the biggest beneficiary in UMNO Youth Wing

It’s UMNO election time again.

I am not an UMNO member. But I have my own pick of the new UMNO line-up here.

In so far as the UMNO Youth Chief race, I understand that Khir Toyo is leading, with Mukhriz and Khairy trailing in that order.

The Youth Deputy Chief race is a straight fight between Razali Ibrahim, the first term Member of Parliament for Muar, Johor and Reezal Merican, an associate of Khairy.

I feel strongly that Razali Ibrahim has the cut to be a good youth leader, and he will be victorious against Reezal Merican.

In his first year as Muar MP, Razali has shown to be eloquent, charismatic and effective. He spoke on a variety of issues in the Parliament, and was not afraid to debate with the seasoned Parliamentarians from the opposition.

Razali Ibrahim would be my pick as the next generation leader from UMNO.

Razali would be in the best position to be selected into Najib’s new Cabinet.

Khir Toyo is not an MP, and has stated that he would not want any ministerial post should he win the UMNO Youth Chief post. Mukhriz has also indicated that he would concentrate on his duty as the UMNO Youth Chief (should he win), and will not be accepting any government post.

Only Khairy has indicated that he would want a ministerial post for the UMNO Youth Chief. And going by the current sentiment, and by him having been found guilty by the UMNO Disciplinary Council, it is unlikely that Khairy would be part of Najib’s Cabinet.

So, Razali Ibrahim would be well poised to be a Minister soon. He will be a fast rising star in UMNO.

Prescene 11 – Pakatan Rakyat will use their powers to suspend Barisan Nasional’s assemblymen

On 12 March 2009, Gobind Singh Deo made at least three remarks in Parliament accusing that Najib is involved in the murder of Altantuya Shaaribu. An extract of the the Parliament’s Hansard can be viewed here.

Such accusation is a blatant misuse of Parliamentary privilege given to Members of the Parliament on remarks made by them during debates in the House of Parliament. Accusing somebody as a murderer, when the case is still outstanding in court, and that the person mentioned is not even part of the court proceedings, is a gross misbehaviour which should not be condoned.

Gobind has been suspended for a year effective today. The Parliament, controlled by Barisan Nasional, voted for the suspension.

We should however note that Pakatan Rakyat controls the State Assemblies of Penang, Selangor, Perak(?), Kelantan and Kedah. The State Assembly Speakers from these states are all Pakatan Rakyat’s assemblymen.

In a tit-for-tat action, Jurublog believes that these Pakatan Rakyat-controlled State Assemblies will take cue of today’s suspension of Gobind and ensure that they do their best to give Barisan Nasional’s assemblymen the taste of their own bitter medicine.

Any “misbehaviour” on the part of Barisan Nasional’s state assemblymen will be subjected to severe scrutiny by the respective Speakers, which may easily lead to the Barisan Nasional assemblymen’s suspensions. Each suspension of Barisan Nasional’s state assemblymen would certainly reduce the chance of Barisan Nasional from taking over the state government ala-Perak.

The current Parliament and State Assemblies are only into their second year, and we have several more challenging years before the next General Election.

We should thus expect some high-handed tactics to suspend Barisan Nasional assemblymen during the current term of the Pakatan Rakyat-controlled state governments.

We have seen it happening in Perak.

By suspending Gobind, Pakatan Rakyat’s supporters are crying foul over the 100,000 people of Puchong losing their representative in the Parliament.

What about the so many other Perak voters who supposedly lost their representatives’ voices in the State Assembly by the Speaker’s action to suspend Zambry, his six EXCO members and the three independents? That’s a lot more people that we should be concerned about. Aren’t Zambry and the others following the Sultan’s judgment call and consent to act as the legitimate state government? Isn’t the act of suspending the assemblymen not a sheer abuse of power by the Perak Speaker, in defiance of the Sultan’s order? Or is it true that there is a different set of rules of law applicable only to Pakatan Rakyat?

Prescene 10 - Nizar will never again be the MB of Perak

Jurublog thinks that the Sultan Azlan Shah of Perak has a very strong reason to be very angry with the ongoing in his state.

It all started with Brother Anwar Bin Ibrahim claiming victory in securing another state seat for PKR in the form of Bota assemblyman.

It was a short-lived ecstasy, as it was rumoured that the Bota assemblyman’s ship jumping was actually part of Najib’s grand ploy to takeover Perak’s state government. Indeed, a few days after the Bota assemblyman’s supposed ship jumping, three other Pakatan Rakyat’s state assemblypersons (including Hee, from DAP) announced that they were quitting PR and declared themselves as independents, but were in support of Barisan Nasional.

Najib, as the Perak BN chief then declared that BN has the majority in Perak State Assembly to form the state government. On the other hand, Nizar, the incumbent MB (and a puppet to DAP), went to seek the Sultan’s consent to dissolve the state assembly. Nizar also claimed that the three PR assemblypersons who jumped ship had signed a quit letters, and that the State Assembly Speaker had quickly consented and declared the three seats as vacant.

The Sultan, being a learnt person, decided not to dissolve the state assembly but instead consented for the new BN government to be formed. That was his prerogative. He may have been pissed off with the DAP-led state government under their puppet Nizar. He may not want another state-wide election, taking into account the fact that DAP may widen their hold in state assembly under current negative sentiments towards the Barisan Nasional. Sultan Azlan would like to have a BN-led government in the state, which can work well with the federal government.

After the events leading to today’s supposedly State Assembly sitting (or rather standing) as declared by the Speaker (under a tree), the Sultan may have to again decide on whether to dissolve the state assembly or let the appointed MB (Zambry) to continue administering the state. A point to note was that the Speaker had chosen to bar the three assemblypersons as well as Zambry and another 6 BN assemblymen from joining the just convened state assembly. Questions linger on the validity of the State Assembly sitting.

The Sultan must be very angry with the current political developments in Perak. He may have to speak up and decide.

Should the Sultan Azlan Shah decide to dissolve the State assembly and a state-wide election is declared, Pakatan Rakyat will surely wins hands down. PR will use the might of the alternative media to garner extra support. It surely will not be a peaceful state election, with PKR being part of the equation. PKR is known to be trouble maker, with Brother Anwar Bin Ibrahim as the king of trouble makers.

If PR then managed to obtain enough majority to form the next state government, they need to decide on the MB.

Jurublog does not think that the Sultan of Perak will any longer wish to see Nizar as Perak MB. Nizar has done much damage on himself towards the Perak royalty. PR will have to look for another person. Ngeh and Nga will surely be out of the equation. A Malay PKR representative would be in order.

The Malay PKR MB will continue to be a puppet for DAP-led Perak state government. In the end, PAS and UMNO will end up as the losers.